Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Olympiakós SFP O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| NEC O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score | 59% |
| Olympiakós SFP 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| NEC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| Olympiakós SFP 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Team to Advance | 46% |
| NEC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Olympiakós SFP O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| NEC O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Olympiakós SFP 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Olympiakós SFP (-1.5) | 17% |
| Olympiakós SFP O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| NEC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| NEC O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| NEC (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Olympiakós SFP 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| NEC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Olympiakós SFP (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| NEC (-2.5) | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 94% probability to nec vs. olympiakós sfp - more markets. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 11 at 1:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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