Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 95% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 87% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 87% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 86% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 81% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 76% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 69% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 69% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 68% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 67% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 66% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 64% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 61% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 61% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 56% |
| Javonte Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 56% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 53% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 52% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| George Pickens: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| George Pickens: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 47% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 46% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 45% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 45% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 45% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 44% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 34% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 34% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 32% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 27% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 27% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 26% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 22% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 21% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 20% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 20% |
| Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 119.5 | 19% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 18% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 17% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 17% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 16% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Javonte Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 16% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 14% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 12% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 12% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 11% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 11% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 11% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 11% |
| Dak Prescott: Anytime Touchdown | 11% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 11% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Anytime Touchdown | 11% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 8% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 8% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 8% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 8% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 6% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 6% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 5% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 5% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 4% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 3% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 3% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to cowboys vs. packers - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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