Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 55% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
Market context
Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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