Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 85% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 83% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 79% |
| O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 9.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 12.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 15% |
| Spread -2.5 | 9% |
Market context
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for August 18 at 8:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $232K.
Methodology
This page reviews Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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