Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians | 30% |
| O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 18% |
| O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 1% |
Market context
The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for July 31 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks w…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $125K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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