Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Match Winner | 87% |
| Game 4 Winner | 64% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 58% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 58% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI Fénix (+1.5) | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI Fénix (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between Solary and Movistar KOI Fénix in the World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET.…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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