Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Levante UD O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| CA Osasuna (-1.5) | 26% |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Levante UD O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 24% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| CA Osasuna (-2.5) | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Levante UD (-1.5) | 7% |
| Levante UD O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Levante UD (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 92%. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 24 at 1:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD - More Markets on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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