Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Bucheon FC 1995’s meeting with FC Anyang is the underlying match, and the “more markets” contract has settled at a crowd-implied **0% YES**, which is far below the prices currently visible across bookmakers and odds aggregators. The market is therefore not pricing this as a routine pre-match football line; it is effectively treating the contract as something with no plausible settlement path, even though the football itself is being priced as competitive rather than one-sided by several external sources.[2][3][5]
That gap matters because the comparable cases point in the opposite direction. SportsGambler’s preview gives Bucheon around a **75-80%** estimated win chance, while other odds feeds show FC Anyang as a modest favourite at about **57%** implied probability, with the draw in the mid-30s and Bucheon roughly low-40s.[1][3] Fonbet’s 2.95 draw price and FootyStats’ description of a tight, balanced match also suggest a normal K-League contest rather than a near-impossible outcome.[5][6] For a cross-platform read, the main takeaway is the divergence: prediction-market pricing is at zero, while sportsbook and analyst consensus clusters around a closely fought fixture with no extreme edge.[1][2][3]
Traders should watch the exact settlement wording on “more markets”, because these contracts often depend on whether a specified market is listed, suspended, or graded from the final match state rather than the match winner. Line movement into kick-off, team-sheet confirmations, and any late changes to market availability are the most relevant catalysts, especially in a same-day K-League fixture where prices can shift quickly around line-up news and bookmaker suspension windows.[2][4]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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