Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, ningbo open, qualification: aliaksandra sasnovich vs anna bondar stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Anna Bondar in the Ningbo Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
We track Ningbo Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Bondar across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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