Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov. This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Pridankina and Diana Martynov in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page reviews Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Diana Martynov across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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