Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 Winner | 42% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 Winner | 40% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro | 39% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 23% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 69% probability to us open, qualification wta: rebecca marino vs fiona ferro. This market refers to the tennis match between Rebecca Marino and Fiona Ferro in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'R…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona … on PolyGram
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