Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: martyna kubka vs annika penickova. This market refers to the tennis match between Martyna Kubka and Annika Penickova in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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