Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets Game Spread +/-6.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to ningbo open, qualification: katarzyna kawa vs katie volynets. This market refers to the tennis match between Katarzyna Kawa and Katie Volynets in the Ningbo Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We track Ningbo Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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