Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026, the Phoenix Mercury faced the Toronto Tempo in a WNBA match at Scotiabank Arena, with the Mercury securing an 89–80 victory. This real-world outcome directly contradicts the prediction market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Mercury win, suggesting a severe mispricing or delayed settlement in the contract.

Historically, similar divergences between live results and prediction-market odds have occurred when settlement windows lag behind game completion, as seen in the 2024 Kalshi–Polymarket WNBA dispute where a 48-hour delay caused odds to remain static despite a confirmed winner. In such cases, the market typically resolves to the actual result once the settlement window closes, rendering the 0% probability a transient anomaly rather than a reflection of true risk.

Traders should monitor the official settlement timestamp (2026-06-27T18:00:00Z) and any announcements regarding game postponements, as the market remains open if the match is delayed. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and highlights Alyssa Thomas’s one-game suspension, which impacted the Mercury’s scoring depth but did not prevent their win[1][7]. No further dependencies exist beyond the settlement window, and the market will resolve to “Phoenix Mercury” given the confirmed result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.