IK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

IK Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna will meet in Allsvenskan on 10 August 2026, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 0% crowd-implied probability on this contract reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting exact scores in football; even heavily favoured outcomes rarely command more than 5–8% implied probability across major sportsbooks. Traditional bookmakers typically offer exact-score betting at substantially longer odds than prediction markets, with the most common results (1–0, 2–1, 1–1) usually ranging from 8–12% at major European operators. The divergence between sportsbook pricing and prediction-market consensus on specific scorelines often stems from differing liquidity depths and risk models rather than genuine disagreement about match likelihood.

Historical data from Allsvenskan suggests that roughly 35–40% of matches resolve to "Any Other Score" when exact outcomes are enumerated. Both clubs' recent form, injury status, and head-to-head records will shape which scorelines traders consider plausible. Sirius finished mid-table in 2025, whilst Brommapojkarna has experienced fixture congestion in European qualifying rounds, a factor that may depress their physical availability. Traders should monitor official team news through the Swedish Football Association and club websites in the week preceding the match; any late withdrawals of key players could shift the distribution of probable outcomes. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders minimal post-match arbitrage opportunity.

Methodology

We track IK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.