Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Boys Association’s match with Club Alianza Lima looks badly mispriced on the crowd number: the contract is at **0% YES**, yet the wider football market still treats Alianza as a clear away favourite rather than an impossibility.[1][2][4] ESPN’s odds snapshot had Alianza around **-111** in the 1x2 market, with Sport Boys near **+300** and the draw around **+108 to +155** across related markets, which implies a realistic, non-zero away-win chance even before margin is stripped out.[1][8] That makes the prediction-market price look far below sportsbook consensus rather than merely cautious.[1][3][11]

Comparable pricing across odds sites points the same way: Alianza has generally been listed between about **1.9 and 2.15** decimal, while Sport Boys sits in the **3.5 to 4.2** range and the draw roughly **3.0 to 3.6**.[4][5][6][11] Historical head-to-head data from FootyStats also frames this as a match with frequent goals and a meaningful away edge, with Alianza winning a majority of comparable meetings and the over-1.5 and over-2.5 goal rates sitting at **67%** and **33%** respectively in its database view.[7] The market’s 0% YES therefore looks more extreme than the analyst baseline, not a reflection of a consensus that Alianza cannot win.[6][13][14]

For traders, the key catalysts are late team news, rotation, and any schedule compression around Alianza’s domestic or continental commitments, because those are the variables most likely to move a football moneyline in Peru late in the week.[1][4][11] There were no contrary result signals in the cited odds boards; instead, the main live reference point is whether the away price holds near the low-2.0s or shortens further before kick-off, which would underline the divergence between sportsbook implied probability and the market contract.[1][4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.