SK Brann vs. IK Start

Platform comparison

Market context

SK Brann and IK Start met at Brann Stadion in Bergen on Sunday, 12 July 2026, for a Norway Eliteserien fixture that concluded with a 2–1 home victory for Brann[3]. The match, which started at 15:00 UTC, saw Noah Jean Holm score twice for the hosts, while Ulrik Mathisen provided key assists[5].

Historically, Brann holds a clear edge in this fixture, having won eight of the previous 16 meetings compared to Start’s four wins and four draws[2]. Despite Brann’s recent three-game losing streak before this match, including a 2–1 home defeat to Sarpsborg 08, bookmakers still priced them as overwhelming favourites at –286, implying a 74% win probability[4]. This contrasts sharply with the prediction market’s 100% YES implied probability, suggesting the market settled only after the result was confirmed, whereas sportsbooks offered significant value on Start at +600 pre-match[4].

Traders should note that this contract’s settlement window closed post-match, meaning the 100% YES probability reflects the actual outcome rather than a pre-game forecast. With Brann now sitting 11th in the standings (13 points) and Start 16th (7 points) after 14 matches, the result reinforces Brann’s relative strength despite their fragile recent form[8]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies affect this settled market, as the game has already concluded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.