Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H Moneyline | 75% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| O/U 42.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 58% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 50.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 30% |
| Spread -17.5 | 29% |
| Spread -19.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 56.5 | 22% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
Market context
Chiefs vs. Dolphins. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 85% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $133K.
Methodology
We track Chiefs vs. Dolphins across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Chiefs vs. Dolphins on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →