Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto FC will host the New England Revolution on 15 August 2026 at 7:30 PM ET in Major League Soccer regular-season play. The market settlement window closes at 23:30 ET that evening, capturing the full match result and any additional markets that materialise around the fixture. This mid-August fixture falls during the MLS regular season's home-stretch phase, when playoff positioning becomes material and team form often shifts sharply based on injury status and fixture congestion.

Historical precedent suggests that 0% implied probability on ancillary MLS markets typically reflects either genuine market thinness or a structural mismatch between sportsbook offerings and prediction-market liquidity. Toronto FC and New England have met 46 times in regular-season MLS play, with Toronto holding a 15–13–18 record; neither side commands overwhelming historical dominance. Recent sportsbook lines on comparable MLS fixtures show typical spreads of 1.5 to 2 goals, with moneyline odds clustering around −120 to −140 for home teams in mid-table matchups. The 0% reading here likely signals absent or minimal trading activity rather than consensus certainty.

Traders should monitor team news releases and injury confirmations through mid-August, particularly regarding key defenders or attacking players. MLS fixture scheduling occasionally shifts due to international window conflicts or weather; any postponement would trigger settlement delays. Comparative odds across FanDuel, DraftKings, and Betano typically diverge by 5–10 percentage points on MLS moneylines, creating arbitrage opportunities if prediction-market liquidity deepens. Watch for late-week team selection announcements, which often move peripheral markets more sharply than headline fixtures.

Methodology

We track Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.