D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

D.C. United host New England Revolution in an MLS match scheduled for 19 August 2026, and the contract’s 4% YES price sits far below the pre-match moneyline market, which was generally treating the game as close to a coin flip or slightly away-leaning. Major sportsbooks quoted D.C. around +105 to +150, New England around +160 to +205, and the draw around +240 to +257, while one modelled preview put D.C. at 40.1%, New England at 34.9% and the draw at 25.0%, all of which are materially higher than a 4% implied probability for a home win. That gap suggests the market is not pricing a routine result; it is pricing a very specific state, so the key comparison is not outright team strength but whether the contract’s settlement condition is far narrower than the matchline.

Recent previews framed the game as one with modest total-goals expectation rather than a one-sided mismatch, with totals mostly around 2.5 and some books leaning slightly to the over. That matters because low-scoring MLS matches can produce volatility in short-window markets if a red card, late team news, or a rotated XI shifts the balance quickly. Traders should watch starting line-ups, any late injury or suspension updates, and whether either side is managing minutes through a congested late-summer schedule, as those are the usual catalysts for moves away from the pre-match consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.