Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
26% | 74% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
26% | 74% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF | 26% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 13% |
| Los Angeles FC | 8% |
| Nashville SC | 8% |
| Chicago Fire FC | 7% |
| FC Cincinnati | 5% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 4% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 4% |
| Houston Dynamo FC | 2% |
| LA Galaxy | 2% |
| New York City FC | 2% |
| New York Red Bulls | 2% |
| Real Salt Lake | 2% |
| San Diego FC | 2% |
| Atlanta United FC | 1% |
| Charlotte FC | 1% |
| Columbus Crew | 1% |
| FC Dallas | 1% |
| D.C. United | 1% |
| Minnesota United FC | 1% |
| New England Revolution | 1% |
| Orlando City SC | 1% |
| Toronto FC | 1% |
| Austin FC | 0% |
| Colorado Rapids | 0% |
| CF Montréal | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union | 0% |
| Portland Timbers | 0% |
| St. Louis City SC | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 26% YES probability for MLS Cup Winner 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathema…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade MLS Cup Winner 2026 on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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