Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 57% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 38% |
| New York Yankees | 24% |
| Atlanta Braves | 20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 17% |
| San Diego Padres | 16% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8% |
| Chicago Cubs | 6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5% |
| Texas Rangers | 5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 4% |
| Miami Marlins | 4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3% |
| Houston Astros | 3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 3% |
| Washington Nationals | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 57% chance of mlb: team to win 100+ games. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any po…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade MLB: Team to win 100+ games on PolyGram
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