Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets face off at Citi Field on Saturday, 27 June 2026, with the game scheduled to begin at 4:10 PM ET. The Phillies, holding a 46–36 record and a strong away form of 23–17, are the underdogs in this matchup, while the Mets (34–48) are the home favourites despite a struggling season.

Historically, when a team with a superior win-loss record like the Phillies plays as an underdog against a weaker home side, the crowd-implied probability often diverges sharply from sportsbook lines. In this case, the prediction market assigns only an 18% chance to the Phillies winning, yet FanDuel lists them at +112 moneyline odds, implying roughly a 47% win probability, and numberFire predicts a 53.6% chance for the Mets to win. This significant gap suggests the prediction market may be overreacting to the Mets’ home status or recent form, while traditional bookmakers are pricing in the Phillies’ stronger overall performance.

Traders should monitor the starting pitchers’ confirmed lineups and any late injury updates before the game, as these are the primary catalysts for outcome shifts. Christian Scott (Mets) and Alan Rangel (Phillies) are the expected starters, with Scott holding a 3.10 ERA and Rangel at 2.25, a difference that could heavily influence the final result. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the odds and player props remain stable, but any change in pitcher availability could alter the implied probabilities dramatically. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, with the over slightly favoured, indicating expectations of a moderate-scoring contest.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.