Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Platform comparison

Market context

The Oakland Athletics defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5–2 in their MLB matchup on Monday night, 20 July 2026, at Phoenix’s home stadium. Jeff McNeil delivered the go-ahead runs with a pinch-hit single in the seventh inning, securing a three-run road-trip victory for the Athletics [1][5]. The game concluded with Harris earning his seventh save of the season, confirming the final result before the settlement window’s 2026 deadline [1].

Historically, 100% YES probabilities in completed MLB games align with outcomes where the result is already confirmed by official statistics, rendering the market a certainty rather than a speculative contract. In prior cases where a game finishes before settlement, prediction markets resolve immediately to the winner, with no divergence between sportsbook moneylines and final outcomes once play ends [2][3]. The Athletics’ win eliminates any 50–50 tie or cancellation risk, as the governing body has recognised the final score.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics page for any post-game adjustments, though no such changes are expected given the game’s completion. The primary catalyst is the confirmation of the result via the governing body’s official record, which has already been published [2]. With the game finished and the Athletics victorious, the contract’s 100% YES probability reflects the settled real-world outcome, not a forecast. No further announcements or schedule dependencies remain relevant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.