Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Market context

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 7–5 in their MLB matchup on 28 June 2026, a result that already occurred before the prediction market’s settlement window closes in July 2026. This game, featuring Hunter Brown (1–0, 1.40 ERA) against Jack Flaherty (1–8, 5.35 ERA), saw the Astros dominate as 1.5-run road favourites with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings [4]. The 100% YES implied probability in the prediction market aligns with the actual outcome, creating a stark divergence from pre-game sportsbook lines that still priced the Tigers as +109 underdogs [4].

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability after an event has concluded represent arbitrage-free positions where the outcome is no longer uncertain, unlike pre-game contracts where odds fluctuate with pitcher performance and lineup changes. Comparable cases in MLB prediction markets show that when a game result is known, implied probabilities converge instantly to 100% for the winner, whereas sportsbooks retain historical odds until official settlement [1]. This convergence eliminates the divergence typically seen between analyst consensus and market pricing, as seen in Brown’s superior form versus Flaherty’s struggles [1].

Traders should monitor official MLB final statistics as the primary resolution source, noting that any postponement extends the market until completion, while cancellation or a tie resolves it 50–50 [1]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and pitcher stats, validating the Astros’ victory [1]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies exist, as the game has concluded, making this a settled event rather than a live trading opportunity. The market’s 100% probability reflects the known outcome, not a forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.