Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers face off at Comerica Park on Saturday, 27 June 2026, with the game scheduled to begin at 1:10pm ET. While the prediction market for a Houston Astros win currently implies a 0% probability, traditional sportsbooks show a markedly different picture, with Detroit listed as the favourite at -136 to -141 moneyline odds and the Astros as underdogs at +110 to +116[1][2]. Analyst consensus from numberFire projects a 54.6% chance for a Tigers victory, and SportsLine’s model forecasts 9.3 combined runs, suggesting the market’s zero-implied probability for Houston diverges sharply from both bookmaker lines and statistical modelling[1][3].

Historically, such extreme divergence between prediction-market implied probabilities and sportsbook lines often signals either a data error in the market or a mispricing that traders can exploit, as seen in previous MLB contracts where zero-implied outcomes later resolved as winners due to late pitching changes or weather delays. In comparable cases, when a team is favoured by 1.5 runs on the spread yet carries a near-zero win probability in a prediction market, the discrepancy usually resolves once the final pitching lineup is confirmed, as the market fails to account for the starting pitcher’s impact until the game begins[1][6].

Traders should monitor the official starting pitcher announcements for both teams, as a late change to Houston’s rotation could drastically alter the win probability, and watch for any weather updates that might affect the over/under line set at 8.5 runs[1][4]. The settlement window closes on 4 July 2026, but the game’s outcome will be determined by the final official statistics recognised by MLB, meaning any postponement will keep the market open until completion[1]. Recent coverage from FanDuel and ESPN confirms the Tigers’ home advantage and their -1.5 run-line favourite status, reinforcing the need to verify real-time roster updates before the market settles[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.