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Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds

Five-platform snapshot of "Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 78% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 66% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 55% NRFI 53% Volume: $181K Liquidity: $673K Closes: 11 Jul 2026
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.578%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.566%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.555%
NRFI53%
O/U 9.547%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds46%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.543%
Spread -1.538%
Spread -1.535%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.534%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.530%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.527%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.526%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.517%
Extra Innings9%

Market context

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds — current market-implied probability: 78%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for July 4 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 78% for "Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 78% Other 22%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $181K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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