Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 52% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Club Puebla O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| CF Pachuca (-1.5) | 7% |
| Club Puebla (-1.5) | 1% |
| CF Pachuca (-2.5) | 1% |
| Club Puebla (-2.5) | 1% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
Pachuca and Puebla will meet in Liga MX on 17 August at 23:00 ET, with settlement contingent on whether additional betting markets become available for the fixture by 03:00 UTC on 18 August. The 7% implied probability reflects a low likelihood that supplementary markets—beyond standard match outcome, over/under, and handicap lines—will be offered by major sportsbooks or exchanges ahead of kick-off.
Historical precedent suggests Liga MX fixtures routinely attract expanded market offerings from major platforms, particularly for clubs with established betting audiences. Pachuca and Puebla both command consistent liquidity on conventional wagers; the question centres on whether niche derivatives (player prop bundles, corner-count exotics, or live-betting aggregates) materialise within the settlement window. Comparable mid-tier Liga MX matchups have seen secondary markets launch within hours of fixture announcement, though timing remains volatile and dependent on sportsbook operational capacity.
The critical variable is sportsbook inventory decisions in the final 24 hours before kick-off. Regulatory changes in Mexico and cross-border betting platforms' resource allocation will influence whether additional markets launch. Traders should monitor major operators' market listings from 16 August onwards; any announcement of expanded offerings from Betfair, DraftKings, or regional competitors would shift the probability materially. The settlement window's tight closure—just four hours post-kick-off—means late-stage market additions carry outsized weight, and liquidity on secondary markets often lags primary ones by several hours.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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