Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 60% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Tijuana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Tijuana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score | 23% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Atlético San Luis (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Club Tijuana (-1.5) | 4% |
| Atlético San Luis (-2.5) | 3% |
| Club Tijuana (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Tijuana 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Tijuana 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlético San Luis and Club Tijuana are due to meet in Liga MX, with the market for **more markets** on the game pricing at a **14%** crowd-implied chance of landing. That sits notably below the more conventional match-side pricing available across books, where Club Tijuana and Atlético San Luis have both been posted as narrow favourites at different points, while draw prices have generally sat in the mid-200s to low-300s in American odds terms.[4][5][9][10][11]
For context, this contract is best read against the broader match environment rather than any single outright line. Sportsbooks and model shops have not shown a clean consensus: Oddspedia and related listings have alternated between slight Tijuana and slight San Luis edges, Dimers has San Luis ahead 44.8%-32.0%-23.2%, while other previews lean towards a competitive, goals-friendly game with Both Teams to Score favoured and totals around 2.5.[3][4][5][6][7][8][10] That kind of split usually points to uncertainty over which specific ancillary markets will be offered or activated, which helps explain why a generic “more markets” contract can sit well below the headline match probabilities.
Traders should watch late team news, market selection, and whether pricing on props tightens as kickoff approaches. ESPN’s listing and the sportsbook boards show totals and BTTS lines moving around the same range, which implies that a squad announcement, rotation, or a change in expected game state could move the ancillary menu more than the 1X2 market itself.[10][11][18] In practice, the main catalyst is whether books continue to hang a relatively open, goal-leaning profile for a fixture that already has both sides priced within a narrow band.[5][6][9]
Methodology
This page reviews Atlético San Luis vs. Club Tijuana - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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