Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 70% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Game 2 Winner | 61% |
| Game 1 Winner | 60% |
| Game 3 Winner | 60% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 59% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 58% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 48% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 46% |
| Game 4 Winner | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 33% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 31% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+2.5) | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 12% |
Market context
Market consensus: 70% chance of lol: kt rolster challengers vs dn soopers challengers (bo5) - lck challengers league playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between KT Rolster Challengers and DN SOOPers Challengers in the LCK Challengers League Playoffs, initially scheduled fo…
Methodology
We track LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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