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LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Game 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 96% Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) 88% Game 2 Winner 80% Volume: $530K Liquidity: $1.0M Closes: 5 Sept 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Match Winner96%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)88%
Game 2 Winner80%
Game 3 Winner78%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?76%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?70%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?70%
Game 4 Winner65%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5)61%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?53%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?47%
First Blood in Game 3?42%
O/U 3.5 Games40%
O/U 4.5 Games11%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Karmine Corp and GIANTX in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve t…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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