Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Los Angeles FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Los Angeles FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Los Angeles FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Querétaro FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Querétaro FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Los Angeles FC will face Querétaro FC in the Leagues Cup on 12 August at 10:30 PM ET, a knockout-stage fixture in the annual tournament pairing MLS and Liga MX clubs. The match will be contested at a venue to be confirmed, with the winner advancing to the next round. Settlement occurs shortly after the final whistle on 13 August at 02:30 UTC.
The 0% implied probability across prediction markets reflects the binary nature of this contract type—it likely settles on a specific secondary market outcome rather than a simple match result. Historical Leagues Cup fixtures show LAFC has won the tournament twice (2022, 2023) and typically field a competitive squad in August, whilst Querétaro finished mid-table in Liga MX's 2023–24 season. Comparable knockout matches in this competition have seen favourites priced between 55–70% on major sportsbooks; the absence of any YES probability here suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the exact settlement criteria or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline.
Recent Leagues Cup scheduling announcements have confirmed fixture dates but venue assignments remain fluid. Injury reports and squad rotation decisions from both clubs will become material in the 48 hours before kick-off. Sportsbooks including DraftKings and FanDuel typically post LAFC as slight favourites in such matchups, though their specific lines on secondary outcomes—such as exact scorelines or player performance metrics—should be cross-referenced against any emerging prediction-market consensus once trading volume increases.
Methodology
We track Los Angeles FC vs. Querétaro FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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