Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Getafe CF O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 50% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Osasuna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Getafe CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Osasuna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Getafe CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Getafe CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Getafe CF O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score | 21% |
| Getafe CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| CA Osasuna (-1.5) | 19% |
| CA Osasuna O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Getafe CF O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| CA Osasuna (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Getafe CF (-2.5) | 5% |
| O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Getafe CF (-1.5) | 3% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 2% |
Market context
CA Osasuna vs. Getafe CF - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 72%. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 31 at 1:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade CA Osasuna vs. Getafe CF - More Markets on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →