Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, itf bacau: radu mihai papoe vs stefan adrian andreescu stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Radu Mihai Papoe and Stefan Adrian Andreescu in the ITF Men Bacau, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
We track ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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