Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Merel Hoedt Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf w50 hamburg women: astrid lew yan foon vs merel hoedt. This market refers to the tennis match between Astrid Lew Yan Foon and Merel Hoedt in the ITF W50 Hamburg Women, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'As…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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