Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Pisa and Empoli will meet in the Coppa Italia on Monday, 17 August 2026. Both clubs compete in Serie A, Italy's top division, making this an intra-league cup fixture. The match falls early in the Italian football calendar, typically a period when squad depth, pre-season conditioning, and tactical continuity carry outsized weight relative to league form. The 62% implied probability on this contract suggests a meaningful lean towards one outcome, though the specific settlement terms—whether this resolves on regulation time, extra time, or penalties—warrant careful review against sportsbook specifications.

Pisa and Empoli have competed at similar levels in recent seasons, with neither club establishing clear dominance in head-to-head records. Historically, Coppa Italia fixtures between mid-table Serie A sides show high variance; cup matches often feature rotated squads and create conditions where pre-match favouritism diverges sharply from actual performance. Recent comparable matchups between clubs of equivalent standing suggest implied probabilities in the 55–65% range typically reflect modest rather than decisive advantages. The 62% figure sits within this band, implying the market has priced a slight edge without overwhelming confidence.

Traders should monitor squad news and injury bulletins released in the week preceding the fixture, as Coppa Italia matches frequently see experimental lineups. Fixture congestion—particularly whether either side faces a league match in the days immediately before or after—can influence team selection and intensity. Sportsbook moneyline odds and Asian handicap lines should be cross-referenced against this contract's implied probability to identify any material divergence in how different markets are pricing the encounter.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.