Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Thor Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Thor Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri (-1.5) | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri (-1.5) | 0% |
| KA Akureyri (-2.5) | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
KA Akureyri and Thor Akureyri are scheduled to meet on 27 July in the Besta deild, Iceland's top football division, with kick-off at 3:15 PM ET. The market in question tracks whether additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently assess minimal likelihood of supplementary market creation before the settlement window closes on 27 July at 19:15 UTC—roughly 16 hours after the match concludes.
Historical precedent for Icelandic football markets on prediction platforms shows uneven coverage. Besta deild fixtures typically attract baseline markets (match outcome, total goals) on major platforms, but secondary markets—such as first goalscorer, corner counts, or player performance props—remain sparse compared to European top-five leagues. The absence of established secondary-market infrastructure for Icelandic football, combined with the small liquidity pools these matches generate, has historically discouraged platform operators from expanding offerings. Previous seasons' matches between comparable Icelandic clubs have rarely triggered additional market creation post-launch.
Traders should monitor whether either club announces squad changes or injury updates in the days preceding the fixture, as such developments occasionally prompt sportsbooks to broaden their market suite. Platform announcements from Polymarket or Kalshi regarding Icelandic football expansion would also shift expectations materially. The settlement window's tight closure—occurring during the second half of play—further constrains the operational window for new market deployment, making real-time market additions logistically challenging for most platforms.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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