England vs. Argentina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final between England and Argentina, scheduled for 15 July at Wembley, will resolve this exact-score contract based solely on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and penalties. England currently hold a historical edge in official matches with six victories to Argentina’s two, though Argentina has won the most recent high-profile encounters, including the 2022 World Cup quarter-final via penalties after a 1–1 draw [1][2]. In World Cup history specifically, England won three of the five previous meetings, drawing one and losing once, suggesting a pattern of tight, low-scoring affairs where 1–1 or 2–1 outcomes are statistically recurrent rather than goal-heavy blowouts [3][6].

The 11% crowd-implied probability for the listed exact score sits meaningfully below typical sportsbook odds for comparable tight semi-final outcomes, which often price specific 1–1 or 2–1 scores at 14–16%, indicating a divergence between prediction-market sentiment and traditional bookmaker lines. Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates for key attackers like Harry Kane and Lionel Messi, as these directly influence goal-scoring probability and exact-score likelihood. With the match set for 3:00 PM ET on 15 July, no postponement is currently expected, but any official FIFA communication regarding venue or timing changes would immediately impact settlement timing and market liquidity [5][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews England vs. Argentina - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.