Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 29% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 11% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, argentina vs. egypt - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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