ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Market context

The July 19, 2026 ODI between West Indies and New Zealand in the Caribbean has already concluded in the broader series context, with New Zealand dominating the 3rd ODI on 16 July by six wickets after restricting West Indies to 140[1]. The 0% YES implied probability for West Indies winning this specific contract reflects the tour’s actual outcome: New Zealand secured the series with victories in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ODIs, including a seven-wicket win in the opener where Carty and Hope led a 268/3 chase[2][3]. Historical precedent in this tour shows West Indies failing to post competitive totals against New Zealand’s disciplined bowling, with the 3rd ODI seeing them collapse to 140/10 in 37.1 overs[1].

Traders should note that the settlement window extends to 26 July 2026, but the match result is already finalized per ESPNcricinfo, the designated resolution source[1]. No further catalysts—such as team announcements or schedule changes—apply, as the fixture is complete and the winner declared. The divergence between the 0% prediction-market probability and any residual sportsbook lines (if they exist) would be anomalous, given the match’s settled status; analysts universally recognise New Zealand as the confirmed winner of this ODI[3]. With the series result locked and no Super Over or tiebreak conditions triggered, the contract’s resolution is deterministic, leaving no room for probability revision.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.