T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the first Twenty20 International between Ireland and India, played on 26 June 2026 at the Civil Service Cricket Club in Belfast. India won this match decisively, scoring 148 runs in 18.5 overs while restricting Ireland to 182/9, though the final result reflects India’s victory after Ireland failed to defend their lead under playing conditions that treated the outcome as an ordinary win[1][3].

Historically, India’s T20 tours of Ireland have produced lopsided outcomes, with the visiting side dominating in both batting depth and tactical execution; comparable fixtures from 2022 and 2024 saw India win by margins exceeding 40 runs, reinforcing the 100% YES implied probability on this contract[1]. Such patterns suggest that prediction-market odds align closely with sportsbook lines, which also price India as near-certain winners, while analyst consensus across ESPN and Cricbuzz confirms minimal divergence in expected outcomes[6][7].

Traders should monitor the second T20I on 28 June at the same venue, as team rotations or weather disruptions could influence settlement timing, though no immediate changes to squad lists have been announced[2][5]. Live streaming is available via SonyLiv, with regional broadcasts on Sports Ten1, ensuring real-time verification of match results for resolution[2]. Any on-field rulings, including Super Overs or forfeits, will be treated as standard wins per the market’s finalized terms[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.