The Hundred: Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit

Platform comparison

Market context

Sunrisers Leeds and London Spirit meet at Headingley in a match where the crowd price is already at **100% YES**, so the contract is effectively being treated as settled before the ball is bowled. That is much firmer than the sort of mid-range pricing usually seen in cricket markets, and it leaves little room for a genuine sportsbook-style upset to be reflected unless the market is updating on a confirmed result, abandonment, or correction. On the comparable record, Sunrisers have had the better of recent meetings: ESPN lists three Sunrisers wins in the last four Hundred men’s match-ups against Spirit, including an eight-wicket chase in 2025 and a 2024 win by the same margin.[10] In the women’s fixture at the same venue earlier on 4 August, Sunrisers also beat Spirit by five wickets, which reinforces the recent head-to-head lean even though that is a separate competition.[1][2]

For traders, the key catalysts are confirmation of the line-ups, the toss, and any weather or schedule change at Headingley, because a delayed or reduced-overs game can still settle as an ordinary win under the rules if a winner is declared.[14] The live score source shows London Spirit won the toss and chose to bowl in the men’s match, which is the sort of pre-play detail that can matter in a tight game, especially at a venue where batting first has sometimes produced large totals.[14][3][4] The widest divergence on this contract is between the crowd market and the available book-based signal: BETDAQ’s exchange line was reported around 1.8 for Sunrisers to beat Spirit, implying a strong but not certain favourite, so the 100% crowd price sits well above a conventional betting view.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.