Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 91% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 71% |
| O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 43% |
| O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score | 37% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 32% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Debreceni VSC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Debreceni VSC (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
FC København will face Debreceni VSC in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying match on 12 August 2026. The fixture forms part of the competition's preliminary round structure, where aggregate scores across two legs determine progression. The 100% implied probability on this contract suggests near-certainty that additional markets—such as correct score, total goals, or player performance props—will be offered by major sportsbooks ahead of the fixture.
Historical precedent shows that Europa Conference League qualifying matches consistently attract secondary market coverage, particularly when one club holds a substantial aggregate advantage or when the tie is decided before the second leg. Kalshi and Polymarket have both settled similar "more markets" contracts at YES when qualifying matches between established European sides generated sufficient trading volume to justify expanded betting menus. The 12 August scheduling aligns with UEFA's standard summer qualifying window, when bookmakers typically expand offerings for televised continental fixtures.
Traders should monitor official UEFA fixture confirmations and any late-stage team news affecting squad availability, as these often trigger sportsbook market launches. Broadcast rights announcements and betting-exchange liquidity patterns in the week preceding the match will signal whether major operators intend to offer expanded props. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, requiring confirmation of market availability by that deadline rather than reliance on post-match settlement timelines.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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