1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

1. FC Köln and Real Sociedad meet in a club friendly, and the exact-score contract is currently priced by the crowd at **0% YES**, which is consistent with the idea that no listed scoreline is yet regarded as likely enough to clear the market. Recent form gives little support for a low-scoring stalemate: Köln’s last five listed results include a 8-0 win and a 5-0 win, while Real Sociedad’s recent friendlies have also produced open games, including a 4-2 win over Aston Villa and a 2-1 loss to Toulouse.[1][3][10] That kind of volatility matters in exact-score markets because even when one side is a small favourite, the contract can still trade below broader match-winner odds if traders expect rotation, limited minutes for starters, or a scoreline outside the most obvious cluster.

Comparable data points suggest the market should be read as a distribution problem rather than a straight win-loss call. FootyStats’ friendly match profiles point to high-scoring tendencies for both sides, with Köln’s average matches running at 4.50 goals and Real Sociedad’s at 3.10, while its head-to-head page shows a history of goals between them and only one UEFA meeting on record.[5][14] A model published in video form projected Real Sociedad as a narrow favourite and singled out 1-2 as the most plausible score, with away win, home win and draw all still carrying meaningful probabilities because friendly line-ups are uncertain.[15] That leaves a notable gap between a 0% crowd price and what a cross-platform comparison would imply: sportsbook-style previews and model commentary lean towards goals and a small away edge, but not towards any single exact score dominating the book.[15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed squads, the extent of rotation, and whether either club treats the fixture as a full first-team run-out or a managed minutes exercise. Sofascore and other live-score listings show the match on the August schedule, while 365Scores marked the fixture as cancelled in one listing, so status verification is important before settlement risk is assessed.[3][7][11] Any late announcement of squad exclusions, a venue or kick-off change, or a switch to shorter periods would alter the exact-score path materially, because this market resolves on the final score regardless of format but is highly sensitive to changes in match length and selection quality.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.