1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian

Platform comparison

Market context

1. FC Cologne face Real Sociedad in a club friendly at the RheinEnergieStadion, and the market is pricing the home side at **100% YES**, which is far above the broader pre-match consensus. Independent preview material points the other way: one model video makes Real Sociedad a narrow favourite at 43% away, 30% Cologne and 27% draw, while a second odds site gives the visitors about 47% and Cologne 29%, suggesting the prediction market is much more compressed than the analytic middle. [1][11][14]

That gap matters because friendlies are driven more by rotation and line-up intent than by season-long strength. The club itself described the fixture as a test match and said it would be played behind closed doors the previous evening, while public listings also show time and venue drift between sources, a reminder to watch for schedule confirmation and whether the clubs treat it as the same contest or a split-home arrangement. [3][2][6][8] For traders, the key catalysts are official team news, any late change to kick-off or venue, and whether either side fields a stronger XI than expected; those factors are the main reason analyst projections sit well below a full certainty price.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.