Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Miami (FL) vs. Stanford | 95% |
| Spread -0.5 | 94% |
| Spread -1.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| Spread -3.5 | 92% |
| Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| Spread -5.5 | 90% |
| Spread -8.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| Spread -6.5 | 88% |
| 1H Moneyline | 88% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| Spread -7.5 | 86% |
| O/U 34.5 | 82% |
| Spread -10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 36.5 | 80% |
| Spread -13.5 | 78% |
| Spread -14.5 | 75% |
| Spread -16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| Spread -17.5 | 69% |
| O/U 40.5 | 67% |
| Spread -20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 42.5 | 64% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 30.5 | 62% |
| Spread -21.5 | 59% |
| O/U 44.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 57% |
| Spread -23.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2H Moneyline | 54% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 54% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 41.5 | 53% |
| O/U 46.5 | 52% |
| Spread: Miami (FL) (-24.5) | 51% |
| Stanford O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 35.5 | 51% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Stanford O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Stanford O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Stanford O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Darian Mensah: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Liam Thorpe: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mark Fletcher Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Malachi Toney: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Barkate: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CharMar Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Micah Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elija Lofton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Lyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Girard Pringle Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Vandrevius Jacobs: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Daylyn Upshaw: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Joshua Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Atticus Joseph: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonanthony Hall: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Benji Blackburn: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davis Warren: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sedrick Irvin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gavin Mueller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zion Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Onovughe: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tuna Altahir: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chico Holt: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Stanford O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| Stanford O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| Stanford O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -27.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 40% |
| Spread -31.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| O/U 54.5 | 29% |
| Spread -34.5 | 23% |
| O/U 56.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 19% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| O/U 68.5 | 8% |
| O/U 66.5 | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Miami (FL) vs. Stanford. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 4 at 9:00PM ET: If Miami (FL) wins, the market will resolve to "Miami (FL)". If Stanford wins, the market will resolve to "Stanford". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $114K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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