Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: bernard tomic vs lloyd harris. This market refers to the tennis match between Bernard Tomic and Lloyd Harris in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'B…
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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