Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 21.5 | 61% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier | 52% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 Winner | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 Winner | 44% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 28% |
Market context
Market consensus: 61% chance of generali open: alex molcan vs daniel altmaier. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Daniel Altmaier in the Generali Open, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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