Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 74% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 36.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 40.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 25% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: mattia bellucci vs zsombor piros stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Zsombor Piros in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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