PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

Scottie Scheffler is the established favourite to defend the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale in July 2026, with sportsbooks pricing him between 4/1 and +700 across major US and UK bookmakers[1][3][8]. The prediction market currently implies an 11% chance for a specific listed player to win, creating a notable divergence from the 16% win probability assigned to Scheffler by traditional odds aggregators[9]. This gap suggests the contract may be targeting a runner priced higher than the American, or that the market is underpricing the favourite relative to the consensus view that Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the primary contenders[2][8].

Historically, early major odds for The Open have seen significant volatility as player form fluctuates through the European summer, with past winners like Shane Lowry and Xander Schauffele often entering as longer shots before their breakthroughs[8]. An 11% implied probability for a single listed player aligns more closely with McIlroy’s +900 to +13/2 sportsbook pricing than Scheffler’s tighter lines, indicating the market may be betting on the World No. 2 rather than the favourite[2][3]. Traders should monitor the official field release and Scheffler’s schedule for the Scottish Open, as a withdrawal or poor form in the warm-up event could rapidly shift the probability landscape[5].

Key catalysts include the confirmation of the full field and any injury updates from the PGA Tour, which could eliminate listed players and instantly resolve their contracts to "No"[2]. Recent coverage highlights Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick as the next tier of English contenders at +1500, offering potential value if the market overreacts to Scheffler’s dominance[3]. With the settlement window closing on 19 July 2026, the contract remains sensitive to pre-tournament news, particularly regarding Scheffler’s participation and McIlroy’s preparation for his first attempt to win the Claret Jug since securing the career slam[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.